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世界经济仍然处于深度调整期、既有复苏迹象，也面临基础不稳、动力不足、速度不均的问题。主要发达经济体的结构性问题远未解决，加强宏观经济政策协调的必要性突出。新兴市场经济体增速放缓，外部风险和挑战增加。世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判举步维艰，贸易和投资保护主义有新的表现。现实世界经济全面复苏和健康成长，将是一个长期而曲折的过程.

The world economy is still in the middle of profound readjustment. While there are signs of recovery, there are also problems of fragile foundation, inadequate momentum and uneven speed of growth. Major developed economies are far from resolving their structural problems, making it all the more necessary to strengthen macro-economic policy coordination. Emerging market economies have slowed down and now face more external risks and challenges. The Doha Round negotiations are fraught with difficulties, and trade and investment protectionism is resurfacing in new forms .To achieve a full recovery and healthy growth of the word economy will be a long and tortuous process.

 

面对世界经济形势带来的新挑战，无论是发达经济体还是发展中经济体，都在努力寻求新的增长动力.

 

增长动力从哪里来？我的看法是，只能从改革中来，从调整中来，从创新中来。亚太一直是世界经济增长的重要引擎，在世界经济复苏缺乏动力的背景下，亚太经济体应该拿出敢为天下先的勇气，推动建立发展创新、增长联动、利益融合的开放型经济发展方式。只有这样，才能做到“山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村”，使亚太经济在世界经济复苏中发挥引领作用。

Where can we find the new drivers? In my opinion，they can only be found through reform, readjustment and innovation. The Asia Pacific has long been an important engine of world economic growth. To push for a recovery of the sluggish world economy, economies in the Asia Pacific should have the courage to do what has never been done before and build an open growth model featuring innovative development. interconnected growth and converging interests. Only by so doing can the Asia Pacific economies, as one Chinese poem describes,“find the way to the next village shaded in soft willows and bright flowers despite the difficulties posed by mountains and rivers” and play a leading role in the recovery of the world economy.

 

中国正在进行着这样的努力。上半年，中国经济同比增长7.6%，较以往8%以上的增速确实有所放缓。一些朋友对中国经济前景有些担心，有的人提出了一些问题：中国经济会不会“硬着陆”？中国经济能不能持续健康发展？中国将如何应对？中国经济形势会给亚太带来什么影响？对此，我愿谈几点看法。

This is exactly what China is doing. China’s economy grew at a speed of 7.6% in the first half of this year. This is, indeed, somewhat lower than the previous growth rate of over 8%, which has caused some friends to worry about the prospects of the Chinese economy .Some wondered whether there would be a hard landing. whether sustained, healthy growth was still possible, how China would deal with this situation, and what impact this would have on the Asia Pacific. Here I wish to share with you some of my observations.

 

首先，我要强调的是，综合分析各方面情况，我对中国经济发展前景充满信心。

 

第一，信心来自中国经济增速处在合理区间和预期目标内。中国经济增速从以前的两位数增长到2011年的9.3%和2012年的7.8%，再到今年上半年的7.6%，总体上实现了平稳过渡。7.6%的增长，在世界主要经济体中名列前茅。中国经济基本面是好的，经济增长及其他主要经济指标保持在预期目标之内，一切都在预料之中，没有什么意外发生。

I am confident because first of all China’s growth rate is within the reasonable and expected range. From the previous double-digit growth rate to 9.3% in 2011,7.8% last year and 7.6% in the first half of this year, the change in speed of growth has on the whole been smooth. In fact, the growth rate of 7.6% makes the Chinese economy the fastest growing among major economies. The fundamentals of the Chinese economy are good; GDP growth and other major economic indicators are within the expected range. So everything has been going as expected and nothing has come as a surprise.

 

中国经济增速有所趋缓是中国主动调控的结果。因为，实现我们确定的到2020年国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目的，只要7%的增速就够了。我们在提出中长期发展目标时就充分进行了测算。同时，我们认识到，为了从根本上解决中国经济长远发展问题，必须坚定推动结构改革，宁可将增长速度降下来一些。任何一项事业，都需要远近兼顾、深谋远虑，杀鸡取卵、竭泽而渔式的发展是不会长久的。

 

第二，信心来自于中国经济发展质量和效益稳步提升。今年上半年，中国经济发展的特点是总体平稳、稳重有进。“稳”是指经济增长处在合理区间，“进”是指经济发展方式转变步伐加快。中国经济发展正在从以往过于依赖投资和出口拉动向更多依靠国内需求特别是消费需求拉动转变。从上半年经济数据看，结构调整的拉动作用正在显现，内需拉动经济增长7.5个百分点，其中消费拉动3.4个百分点。我们不再简单以国内生产总值增长率论英雄，而是强调以提高经济增长质量和效益为立足点。事实证明，这一政策是负责任的，即是对中国自身负责，也是对世界负责。

    Second, I am confident because the quality and efficiency of China’s economic development are improving steadily. China’s economic performance in the first half of this year has been generally smooth and made progress. By“smooth”, I mean our economic growth has been within a reasonable range and by “progress” I mean the shift of our growth model has picked up pace. China is moving from over-reliance on investment and export in the past to increased dependence on domestic demand, especially on consumption. The economic figures for the first half of this year show an increasingly visible role of structural adjustment in boosting growth. Domestic demand has contributed 7.5 percentage points to the GDP growth，With 3.4 percentage point coming from consumption. We no longer take GDP growth rate as the sole criterion for success. Instead, we are focusing more on improving the quality and efficiency of growth. This has been proven a responsible approach for both China and the world.